The Talk
The US share of the world economy has fallen from 50% to 25% in the last few decades. Europe is facing a debt and demographic crisis. In fact, the US itself is a debtor nation. Whilst old powers are in decline, new powers are on the rise. Some of these so called new powers are not so new. China is the original great power and for most of human history the Chinese economy has been the largest in the world. Yet, China has an environmental problem of gargantuan proportions. Its system of governance is still evolving and its global cultural footprint is minimal. Other powers, old and new, are beset by enormous internal challenges too.
With over 7 billion people, tremendous technological change, constant connectivity, scarce natural resources, environmental challenges, increasing inequality and popular upheavals, the world is going through an epochal period. In the early 20th century, European nations became democracies and women got the vote. In the second half of the 20th century, we saw decolonization. Today, the way we live is changing and that is challenging not only national structures but also international institutions. New actors such as giant financial institutions and powerful corporations have sprung up. Small businesses on main streets of towns are being replaced by chains, heralding a new era of corporate mercantilism. As stated earlier, inequality is increasing nearly everywhere. This combined with ‘highly uneven educational quality” threatens to tear apart social fabrics and cause political upheavals.
Power is changing hands both internationally, within nations, within societies and even within families. The future of the world will depend on how these powers handle their challenges and figure out ways to cooperate. Old powers have to learn to give way and new powers have to learn patience if we are to avoid disaster. Dominant elites will have to turn enlightened if they are to avoid the pitchforks on the streets. Old certainties are in question and it is again time for us to reinvent our social structures, political institutions and economic systems.